NFL Week 6 late-Sunday Best Bets: Player props, spread bets and more | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks – Pro Football Focus

Bet Christian McCaffrey u60.5 rush yards at Rams: McCaffrey has been held under 60 rushing yards in each of his past two games; Carolina passes the ball 71.2% of the time when losing, and face the Rams as 10-point underdogs.
Bet Marquise Brown o69.5 receiving yards at Seahawks: He has the team’s highest average depth of target, and that is perfect for a matchup against the Seahawks, who allow the second-highest percentage of passing plays to go for 15+ yards.
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Last updated: Sun. Oct. 16, 2:30 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Here are PFF staff best bets in the late-afternoon Sunday window in Week 6:
Timo Riske: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes is getting points. At home. For the first time ever and probably for the last time in a long time. The Bills are the best team in football right now, but this is the chance I wouldn’t want to let pass away. The Chiefs rarely get blown out, so it’s very likely that this game comes down to who possesses the football last, just like in their memorable shootout in last season’s divisional round. The chances that this would be Mahomes are roughly 50:50 and even if the Bills have the laugh last, the result might only be by a field goal or less, allowing the Chiefs to cover the spread of three points.
• McCaffrey has been held under 60 rushing yards in each of his past two games, as his carries have decreased while his targets increase. Carolina passes the ball 71.2% of the time when losing, and face the Rams as 10-point underdogs.
• Most running backs who have faced Los Angeles have been held under 4.0 yards per carry. McCaffrey’s most successful with man/gap-scheme run concepts, which has been his most frequent run concept this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry on such plays. Meantime, the Rams have successfully stifled man/gap-scheme run concepts this season, limiting opposing backs to just 2.7 yards per carry.
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